New data from Statistics Canada highlighted a significant increase in zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) registrations, reaching 12.9 per cent of all new vehicle registrations in the second quarter of 2024.
Stats Can noted that 65,733 new ZEVs were registered in Q2, a 30 per cent increase from the previous quarter. When hybrids are included, more than 106,000 low-emission vehicles were added.
Meanwhile, data from S&P Global Mobility line up with this strong growth. Its Q2 2024 Canadian EV Information and Analysis showed a ZEV market share increase, now sitting at 13.4 per cent (BEVs: 9.9 per cent; PHEVs 3.5 per cent), up from 12.5 per cent in the first quarter.
According to Stats Can, The majority of these registrations were battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), which made up 73.8 per cent (48,489 units) of the total ZEV registrations. The data show that BEVs are up 42 per cent from the last quarter and 36 per cent year-over-year.
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) accounted for the remaining 26.2 per cent (17,244 units, a year-over-year increase of 43 per cent). BEVs alone represented 9.5 per cent of all new vehicle registrations.
S&P’s findings show that the charge of internal combustion engine registrations continues to rickle downwards with ICEvehicles making up 75 per cent. Still a dominant number but down from 82 per cent at the start of 2023.
“Comparing ZEV penetration between Canada and the US, Canada continues to outpace its southern neighbour,” S&P’s report said. “Over the past four quarters, the US has maintained an average ZEV penetration rate of 10 per cent, while Canada proudly stands at 13 percent”
This sentiment was echoed by Erik Johnson, a senior economist at BMO.
“I was expecting it to look a lot more like the US, where we’d see flattish numbers for battery electric vehicles,” he told Yahoo Finance. “And we saw the exact opposite of that, where Canada hit the highest number of units they’ve ever had in the quarter, over 48,000.”
According to Stats Can, Quebec led the nation in ZEV registrations with half the total amount and 25,693 (new BEVs registered in the province. Ontario followed with 10,469 new BEV registrations, and British Columbia reported 9,370 new BEV registrations. Manitoba also showed growth, with 440 new BEV registrations and 296 PHEVs, up from 248 and 212, respectively, in the first quarter of this year.
By percentage, according to S&P, 21.5 per cent of new vehicle registrations in Quebec were BEV, more than half of all sales in Canada (52 per cent). B.C. saw 17 per cent of its vehicle sales be battery electric. The Yukon (8 per cent), Ontario (6 per cent) and Prince Edward Island (4 per cent) rounded out the top five. Ontario accounted for nearly a quarter (23 per cent) of all BEV sales.
S&P expects that ZEV market share will reach 16 per cent by the end of 2024, climbing to 21 per cent in 2025 and 30 per cent by 2026.
“Nonetheless, achieving the 2024 forecast could be challenging,” it noted. “Considering historical volumes, seasonality, and industry trends, a more conservative projection pegs 2024’s final ZEV market share at around 15 per cent.”
It also pointed out that long-term projections face additional clouds as Quebec will begin the phase-out of ZEV incentives starting next year.
“This reduction from $7,000 to $4,000 for BEVs and from $5,000 to $2,000 for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) could dampen demand as cost savings
for consumers diminish,” S&P’s report said.
This comes as EV inventories dropped 43 per cent in July compared to January, S&P noted. Hybrid (40 per cent decline) and PHEVs (38 per cent decline) inventroies have also fallen. Meanwhile, ICE vehicle inventories are up 22 per cent over the same period.
And there are few EVs that are in the aftermarket sweetspot — the average age of a battery electric is three years. PHEVs are, on average old, at 3.8 years. Hybrids are the oldest of the group at 4.9 years on average. ICE vehicles have an average age of 10.6 years.
